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Speculation mounts in both Republican and Democratic circles as to what Gov. Brian Kemp will do next politically since he is barred from running for a third term. If the popular governor decides not to run to be the 2026 GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Democrat Jon Ossoff, it will mean several GOP candidates would jump into the race.

Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group sheds some interesting light on what could happen if Kemp doesn’t run. He conducted a statewide poll of 1,426 respondents (with a margin of error of 2.9 percent) from a pool of 2026 likely general and Republican primary voters. He says it is “based on our proprietary selection and turnout models conducted from April 24-27. Participants were contacted via phone, text, email and other digital platforms to ensure the poll takers comfort and anonymity resulting in the fullest participation and most honest answers.”

As it relates to the GOP primary part of the survey, Cahaly says “we asked people’s preference if Kemp did not enter the race based on a list of other possible candidates for the Senate race. As expected, the two candidates with the highest name recognition U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (43%) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (22%) finish significantly above the others. This is why we asked the second question without those two names showing U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (46%) and U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter (23%).

Secondly, he said “we also measured general election matchups with the top three Republican candidates. In these matchups: Greene receives 37% to Ossoff’s 48%. Raffensperger received 38% to Ossoff’s 46%. Collins gets closer with 43% versus Ossoff’s 48%.”

It is noteworthy that the survey shows Raffensperger keeping Democrat Ossoff to his lowest number, 46%, while Collins gets closest to Ossoff only behind by 5%. This compares to Raffensperger’s 8% and Greene’s 11%. These differences between the GOP candidates are largely based on their strength among Republican voters. Raffensperger is weakest, only receiving 63%. Greene does better at 68%. With Collins doing the best at 80%. By the way, if the governor doesn’t run, there is a high probability that President Donald Trump would weigh in and endorse Collins.

Cahaly concludes: “If Kemp doesn’t choose to run, Ossoff would begin the general election with an advantage but certainly not above 50%.” Any incumbent under 50% obviously has a big problem. But the pollster cautions that the three leading GOP candidates– Raffensperger, Greene and Collins– would have their work cut out for them. Collins, though, “performs the best of the group putting him within striking distance,” he says.