The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) Update
Friday, February 10th, 2023
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in December 2022 to 110.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.8 percent in November. The LEI is now down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 2.3 percent contraction over the previous six-month period (December 2021–June 2022).
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in December 2022 at 109.3 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent decline in November. The CEI rose by 1.1 percent over the six-month period from June to December 2022, faster than its growth of 0.4 percent over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Only the industrial production index contributed negatively to the CEI in December.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in December 2022 to 117.9
(2016 = 100), following an increase of 0.4 percent in November. The LAG is up 2.6 percent over the six-month period from June to December 2022, much slower than its growth of 4.5 percent over the previous six months.