Key takeaways

Inflation will likely curb holiday shopping habits: Holiday spending is flat year-over-year with an average $1,455 per household, but consumers plan to purchase fewer gifts (nine gifts versus 16 gifts in 2021) for family and friends.
As consumers aim to keep the holidays festive, they will likely pull back on non-gift purchases (down 12% year-over-year), and shift spending to experiences (up 7% year-over-year).
Low-income earners plan to spend 25% more than last year, while high-income earners plan to cut back 7%.
Travel demand slows, with less than one-third (31%) of Americans planning to travel between Thanksgiving and mid-January, down from 42% in 2021.

Flexible work schedules continue to help laptop luggers takeoff: Those planning to do some work during their holiday travels are taking more trips and extending their trips by an average of eight days.
Why this matters

The continued impact of inflation and a shift in consumer priorities are set to define the 2022 holiday season, as consumers look for ways to make the season merry and bright. While many Americans feel the pinch of higher prices, they may be evaluating how they spend money overall between socializing, gift-giving, and travel. For 37 years, Deloitte has studied consumer behavior and sentiment ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. This year's report, "2022 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey," examines what retailers can likely expect from consumers shopping for the holidays. With the current economic sentiment, Deloitte also explores holiday travel intent to help provide a complete spending picture this holiday season in the complementary report, "2022 Deloitte Holiday Travel Survey."

For both studies, Deloitte surveyed 4,986 consumers online between Sept. 6 and 14, 2022. From that group, 1,540 respondents who noted they would take a leisure trip this season and stay at paid lodging or with family or friends qualified as holiday travelers. For the holiday retail survey, Deloitte also polled 40 retail executives across categories, of which 93% were from retailers with annual revenues of $1 billion or more, conducted Sept. 1-13.

Consumers remain festive despite a "bah-humbug" environment
Inflation is taking its toll for the second consecutive holiday season in a row. More than one-third of American households (37%) say their financial situation is worse than last year, and 41% expect the economy to weaken next year, compared with 33% in 2021.

After pulling back last year, lower-income groups (those making less than $50,000 per year) plan to spend an average of $671 this holiday season, an increase of 25% year-over-year and similar to 2019 levels. Conversely, spending by higher-income earners (those making $100,000 or more per year) is expected to decline 7% year-over-year to an average of $2,438 as they pull back on categories like electronics. Overall, consumers plan to maintain spending levels year-over-year by prioritizing shared experiences and cutting back on the number of gifts purchased.

Inflation will likely impact consumers' spending this holiday season, for both those planning to spend more and those planning to spend less. When asked about the reasons for the change in year-over-year spending plans, 51% of those spending more attributed it to higher costs (versus in 2021) as did 66% of those spending less, similar to 2021 (67%).

Spending on experiences, which includes entertaining at home and socializing away from home, is expected to increase 7% year-over-year, to $575 per household. Spending on gifts is nearly the same year-over-year at $507 per household, though consumers plan to purchase fewer gifts.
Retail executives are more optimistic: 77% expect holiday sales to increase year-over-year.
With consumers planning to wrap fewer gifts, they will spend less time shopping (5.8 weeks versus 6.4 weeks last year), visit fewer websites and apps (9.1, compared to 11.1 in 2021), and visit fewer stores (5.9, down from 6.6 in 2021).

Prompting shoppers to get a head-start on holiday deals, 60% of retailers surveyed say their companies will start holiday promotions at least one to two weeks earlier than last year.
Amid higher prices and supply chain concerns, gift cards are becoming the go-to gift, prompting an average spend of $252 this year, up 7% from 2021.

Gifting resale items continues to be a key cost-saving strategy as consumers look for ways to maximize spending: 32% of shoppers plan to buy resale items, and nearly half of surveyed retail executives (48%) will sell refurbished or used products this season.
Consumers return to stores, while digital behaviors still prevail and grow
With pandemic anxieties waning, consumers continue to warm up to in-store shopping but are not ready to give up the convenience of shopping online. This preference for digital is also driving increased interest in social media and advanced technologies for holiday purchases.

The share of in-store spending is expected to rise to 35% in 2022 (up from 33% in 2021), which is nearly on par with the 36% seen in 2019.
Online continues to be a holiday shopping mainstay, holding steady with a 63% share. Further, the use of smartphones for online holiday shopping is steadily rising, from 52% in 2019 to 56% in 2022.
Consumers continue to value convenience for their holiday shopping, citing online (56%) and mass merchants (49%) as the most preferred retail formats. This year, grocery stores will likely see a boost in traffic (24% in 2022, compared to 19% in 2021).
As digital-native generations gain purchasing power, social media continues to grow as a resource for shoppers. More than one-third (34%) plan to use social media for holiday shopping, and this is even higher for GenZ (60%) and millennials (56%). Further, 30% of holiday shoppers follow influencers for product recommendations, up from 24% in 2021.
Future-minded consumers are exploring non-traditional platforms, with more shoppers (35% versus 25% in 2021) planning to use technologies like cashier-less stores, live/interactive video streaming, shoppable content and "buy now" buttons on social media.
Past supply chain issues push shoppers to start early
While empty shelves and shipping delays were frequent last holiday season, retailers are more confident about inventory levels. However, amid inflation, brand loyalty may be harder to capture as lower prices and better availability will likely lure shoppers away from their standby brands and retailers.

More than three-quarters of shoppers (77%) expect stockouts this season. However, retail executives are more optimistic. More than half (60%) are comfortable with the volume of holiday merchandise ordered, and all surveyed (100%) anticipate receiving their holiday inventory on time — versus 57% who reported the same in 2021.
The holiday shopping season continues to pull forward, with 23% of holiday budgets spent by the end of October, compared to 18% in 2021. Early shoppers are doing so to help ensure timely delivery (42%) and avoid stockouts (41%).
Though the season is moving up, nearly half (49%) of holiday shoppers plan to participate in Thanksgiving week events, up from 47% in 2021. Three in 10 holiday shoppers plan to spend on Black Friday (29% versus 25% in 2021), and Cyber Monday (30% versus 27% in 2021).
More than half of consumers (60%) will trade brands if their preferred brand is not in stock, and they will check stock availability before making a shopping trip. Nearly two-thirds (65%) will trade brands if prices are too high.
Key quote
"High prices have holiday shoppers prioritizing their purchases, but there are bright lights throughout the season. Lower-income families feel more confident heading into the holidays, younger generations are embracing new retail formats, and retailers do not anticipate the issues with stockouts we saw last year. As consumers aim to be strategic about their purchases to outsmart inflation, retailers who can be flexible to meet consumers where they are will be more likely to build loyalty and profit from the holiday season and beyond."

— Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader