The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 115.9 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August. The LEI is down 2.8 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2022, a reversal from its 1.4 percent growth over the previous six months.

"The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before yearend," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. "The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread. Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in September 2022 to 108.9 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in August. The CEI rose by 0.9 percent over the six-month period from March to September 2022, slower than its growth of 1.4 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.6 percent in September 2022 to 116.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August. The LAG is up 4.1 percent over the six-month period from March to September 2022, faster than its growth of 2.7 percent over the previous six-month period.