S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2022 show that home price gains decelerated across the United States. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 31.7% increase, and Dallas in third with a 24.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.

In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS

"Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI.  "For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%.  The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.  We saw similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June) and our 20-City Composite (up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June).  On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July.

"The theme of strong but decelerating prices was reflected across all 20 cities.  July's year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities, with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case July's gain was less than June's.  Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis.  Tampa (+31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (+31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (+24.7%) holding on to third place.  As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (+27.5%) and South (+26.9%).

"As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day.  Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate."