Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today announced the first quarter (Q1) 2022 results of the Milliman Mortgage Default Index (MMDI), which shows the latest monthly estimate of the lifetime default risk of U.S.-backed mortgages.

During Q1 2022, the default risk for government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) acquisitions (purchased and refinanced loans backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) increased from 1.90% at 2021 year-end to 2.39% as of March 31, 2022. This means that for loans originating in Q1, the expectation is that 2.39% will become delinquent (180 days or more) over their lifetimes. 

GSE mortgage originations continued to decline over Q1 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Of these mortgages, refinance loans made up more than half of originations, at about 57%, which is generally consistent with the prior quarter.  

The MMDI reflects a baseline forecast of future home prices. For more on the MMDI, go to www.milliman.com/mmdi/.