The Housing Market Is As Competitive As Ever Despite 53% Rise in Mortgage Costs

Staff Report

Tuesday, June 7th, 2022

The housing market is as competitive as ever, according to the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Report.i Buyer demand has been strong enough to keep the market moving at a record pace, even after a massive spike in mortgage rates.

Year-over-year home value growth set a record for the 13th consecutive month in April. The typical U.S. home is worth $344,141, 20.9% higher than a year ago. That record pace of growth comes despite rising mortgage rates eating away at what home buyers can afford. The monthly mortgage payment on the typical U.S. home is 11.7% higher than it would have been in March, and 52.5% higher than a year ago, assuming a 30-year mortgage with a 20% down payment.ii

"We do expect the market to begin rebalancing this spring as rising costs keep enough would-be buyers on the sidelines for inventory to begin catching up with demand, but we have not yet reached that point," said Nicole Bachaud, Zillow economist. "Nearly half of homes are selling above their list price, and April sales happened as fast as we've ever recorded. It may very well be that fewer people are trying to buy, but with bidding wars continuing to drive up prices on limited inventory, those in the market today likely won't feel much relief."

To keep monthly mortgage costs the same as they would have been a year ago, today's buyers must shop in a different price range. According to estimates from Zillow's mortgage calculator, a buyer who can afford a monthly mortgage payment of $1,500 could have paid roughly $340,000 for a house a year ago, when mortgage rates were much lower. Today, that $1,500 monthly payment could buy a house worth about $275,000. And that is before factoring in home value growth of more than 20% during that time;  a buyer would have paid about $227,500 a year ago for that $275,000 home.iii