The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined slightly in May to 119.77, down from 120.60 in April 2022 (an upward revision). "The Employment Trends Index fell slightly in May, signaling slowing, but positive job growth in the months ahead. The labor market may have less room for more growth with overall employment down only 0.5 percent compared to the pre-pandemic level," said Agron Nicaj, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. "However, leisure and hospitality and in-person services industries have yet to fully recover job losses incurred since the pandemic. Employment growth is still expected in these industries as consumers continue to shift more spending away from goods and towards services."

Nicaj added: "The labor market remains strong amid high inflation and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its focus on stabilizing prices as a result. A strong response by the Fed risks higher unemployment rates by the end of 2022."

May's decline in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from four of eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get", Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.