Middleburg Communities has published its latest research exploring trends in rental housing. Economic shocks engender changes in consumer behavior – and the larger the shock, the more meaningful and lasting the changes one can expect. As we navigate one of the most severe economic shocks in modern history, Patrick Lynch, VP of Research at Middleburg Communities, has methodically analyzed past and present housing data to produce a picture of what the future holds for the rental housing universe.

In this report, Patrick tackles a broad and complex question: Where does the homeownership rate go from here? After experiencing three consecutive years of resurgent interest in owning a home in the United States, evidence now suggests a possible shift in demand towards renting rather than owning. Our research details the data behind the following summary conclusions:

• Shifts in the homeownership rate can have large impacts on demand for rental housing.

• Much of the variation in the homeownership rate that is unexplained by demographic variables can be explained by the changing net worth of American households and lending standards.

• Steep income declines in 2020 are forecast to lead to a steep drop in the homeownership rate. Thereafter, tightened lending standards and a lingering effect on households' net worth, especially compared to pre-2007 recession levels, limit a recovery in the homeownership rate.

The full report, "Decline in Homeownership Rate Will Boost Rental Demand" by Patrick Lynch, is available by emailing him at [email protected].