Americans' Confidence in Housing Nears Survey High, Despite Moderating Optimism About Wage Growth and Job Security

Staff Report

Tuesday, June 11th, 2019

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased 3.7 points in May to 92.0, just shy of the survey high set last May. A 13-percentage point increase in the "Good Time to Buy" component drove the index higher. The net share of respondents expecting home prices to go up and mortgage rates to go down over the next 12 months also increased by 5 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

"Another sharp rebound in the 'Good Time to Buy' component lifted the HPSI nearer its survey high set during last year's homebuying season, though several uncertainties remain," said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae. "While consumers' more favorable mortgage rate outlook suggests continued support for housing affordability, potential homebuyers still face supply constraints. Additionally, while the survey recently resumed its upward trend, consumers' sense of income growth and job security have moved lower from the highs established earlier in the year, which, if sustained, could weigh on the housing market in the second half of the year."

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Fannie Mae's 2019 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in May by 3.7 points to 92.0. The HPSI is down 0.3 points compared to the same time last year.

The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 13 percentage points to 27%. This component is down 1 percentage point from the same time last year.

The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at 43%. This component is down 3 percentage points from the same time last year.

The net share of those who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months increased 5 percentage points to 41%. This component is down 8 percentage points from the same time last year.

The net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 3 percentage points to -37%. This component is up 12 percentage points from the same time last year.

The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job over the next 12 months increased 2 percentage points to 76%. This component is down 2 percentage points from the same time last year.

The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point to 21%. This component is unchanged from the same time last year.