The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. Declined Slightly in January

Staff Report

Friday, February 22nd, 2019

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index  for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in January (according to preliminary estimates) to 111.3 (2016 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

"Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December's decline was revised up to no change," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2 percent by the end of 2019."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 105.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in January to 106.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 

2018

2019

 

6-month

 

Nov

 

Dec

 

Jan

 

Jul to Jan

                 
                 

Leading Index

111.4

p

111.4

p

111.3

p

   

  Percent Change

0.1

p

0.0

p

-0.1

p

0.8

 

  Diffusion

60.0

 

70.0

 

70.0

 

60.0

 
                 

Coincident Index

105.2

p

105.4

p

105.5

p

   

  Percent Change

0.2

p

0.2

p

0.1

p

1.2

 

  Diffusion

100.0

 

100.0

 

75.0

 

100.0

 
                 

Lagging Index

105.9

p

106.2

p

106.7

p

   

  Percent Change

0.5

p

0.3

p

0.5

p

1.8

 

  Diffusion

64.3

 

85.7

 

78.6

 

85.7

 
                 

p  Preliminary     r  Revised

               

Indexes equal 100 in 2016

               

Source:  The Conference Board