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Housing Sentiment Remains Volatile, Edges Back Up

Staff Report

Monday, April 23rd, 2018

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose 2.5 points in March to 88.3, reversing last month's decrease. The increase can be attributed to increases in three of the six HPSI components. The net share of respondents who said now is a good time to buy a home increased 10 percentage points compared to February. Additionally, the net share who reported that now is a good time to sell a home increased 3 percentage points. The net share who said home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 3 percentage points in March, while the net share of consumers who said mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months also increased 5 percentage points. Americans expressed no change in their sense of job security, with the net share who say they are not concerned about losing their job staying flat month over month. Finally, the net share reporting that their income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago was also unchanged.

"The HPSI's recent run of volatility continued in March, as it recovered last month's loss and remained within the five-point range of the past twelve months," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "The primary driver of this month's increase was the sizable rise in the net share of consumers who think it's a good time to buy a home, which returned the indicator to its year-ago level. On the whole, a slight majority of consumers continue to express optimism regarding the overall direction of the economy."

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Fannie Mae's 2018 Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased in March by 2.5 points to 88.3. The HPSI is up 3.8 points compared with the same time last year.

  • The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 10 percentage points to 32%.

  • The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell rose 3 percentage points to 39%,

    matching the survey high last seen in June 2017.

  • The net share of Americans who say home prices will go up fell 3 percentage points to 42% in March, continuing the decreasing trend from last month.

  • The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months rose 5 percentage points to -52%.

  • The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job remained at 71% in March.

  • The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained at 17%.