U.S. Consumer Spending Highest for Any September Since 2008

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $91 in September, unchanged from August, but the highest average for the month since 2008. The stability in September comes after wide swings during the summer months -- when spending rose from June's $88 average to an eight-year high of $100 in July, then fell to $91 in August.

Results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted throughout September. Gallup asks Americans each night to report how much they spent "yesterday," excluding normal household bills and major purchases such as a home or car. The measure gives an indication of discretionary spending.

Since December 2012, Americans' daily spending estimates have consistently averaged $80 or higher in all but one month. By contrast, in the four years prior, which included part of the Great Recession and periods of high unemployment that ensued, monthly spending averages were as low as $58 and never above $77.

Spending Avoids Usual September Slump

Although spending in the U.S. had been lower in September than in August in each of the past six years, it held steady this year. In all but one of those years it subsequently rose in October. The exception was 2012, when the average dropped in both September and October. Last year, September's average of $88 was only a dollar lower than August's $89.

Monthly Consumer Spending Averages, 2008-2016

 

August

September

October

 

$

$

$

2008

97

99

91

2009

65

66

66

2010

63

59

63

2011

68

65

70

2012

77

74

72

2013

95

84

88

2014

94

87

89

2015

89

88

92

2016

91

91

 

Gallup Daily tracking

Bottom Line

American consumers this year avoided the September slump in spending typically seen in recent years. That has helped keep average spending for the first nine months of 2016 the highest for any year since 2008. Spending patterns of the past decade for the months of October, November and December suggest that spending will increase even further.

However, there are some reasons to believe spending might not follow the normal pattern this year. While the relatively high level of September spending could indicate that Americans stayed in a buying mood even after the end of summer vacations and back-to-school shopping, it could also mean that the customary September-to-October rise in spending has already taken place. And although presidential elections generally do not affect consumer spending, Americans' negative views about the two major-party candidates could affect consumer confidence and spending in ways not seen in 2008 or 2012.

From http://www.gallup.com/poll/195986/consumer-spending-highest-september-2008.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication