Milliman Analysis: Corporate Pension Funded Status Drops by $3B in November
Wednesday, December 9th, 2015
Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index, which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In November, these pension plans experienced a $3 billion decrease in funded status based on a $3 billion decrease in asset values and no movement in pension liabilities. The funded status for these pensions decreased from 83.5% to 83.3%.
"November was another middling month for these pensions, and with the calendar flipping soon the book is nearly written on 2015," said John Ehrhardt, co-author of the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index. "But with the Fed potentially raising interest rates at the end of the calendar year, it could be an exciting finish."
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.81% by the end of 2016 and 5.41% by the end of 2017) and asset gains (11.3% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 97% by the end of 2016 and 111% by the end of 2017. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.51% discount rate at the end of 2016 and 2.91% by the end of 2017 and 3.3% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 75% by the end of 2016 and 69% by the end of 2017.