Owner Perception of Home Values at Best Level in More Than Three Years

Staff Report

Tuesday, May 15th, 2018

Home appraisals are more likely be in line with, or even higher than, owners estimate. In April, appraised values were only 0.33 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to the National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index. The positive trend is apparent at the local level as well. Only five of the 27 metro areas observed in the HPPI reported appraisals lower than what owners estimated.

While they are more in line with what owners expected, home values are continuing their ascent over last year's level. The National Quicken Loans Home Value Index reported a healthy 6.47 percent year-over-year increase, despite near stagnant monthly change, with a 0.05 percent dip in home values since March.

Home Price Perception Index

Homeowners are less likely to get a rude awakening when going through mortgage process. When viewed at a national level, the HPPI shows appraisers' opinions of home value is an average of 0.33 percent lower than homeowners' estimates. This is a move closer to equilibrium and the closest the national appraiser and owner opinions have been in more than three years. Homeowner opinions are also improving when viewed locally. Less than 20 percent of the areas measured have appraisal values lower than estimated. San Jose is leading the way with the average appraisal 2.75 percent higher than expected and Chicago is trailing all cities with appraisals an average of 1.68 percent lower than estimated.

"The appraisal is one of the most important, although sometimes least predictable, parts of the mortgage process," said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. "The Home Price Perception Index is a way to illustrate the differences of opinion, and these differences affect everything from the type of mortgage a borrower can get to the expectations a seller has about the proceeds available upon sale of their home."

Home Value Index

The Quicken Loans HVI, the only measurement of home value changes based solely on appraisal data, showed annual growth in the national index, increasing 6.47 percent from this time last year. Monthly changes were more tempered, with the national index dipping 0.05 percent. The national index was pulled into the negative by the Northeast, the only region showing a decrease in home value at a 1.24 percent decline. The Northeast was still the lowest when reviewing annual changes however all regions were positive – ranging from the Northeast's 2.22 percent growth to the 9.44 percent jump in the West. 

"The skyrocketing home values in the West is a trend with no end in sight. Until home building pace picks up, in combination with more existing homes being listed for sale, affordability will continue to wane," Banfield said. "The other regions of the country are showing annual price gains as well but at a more moderate pace. Time will tell if the slightly higher interest rates in 2018 start to slow demand or if the inventory shortage ends up being a larger contributor to price changes."

 

HVI

April 2018

 

January 2005 = 100

HVI

April 2018

vs.

March 2018

% Change

HVI

April 2018

vs.

April 2017

% Change

HPPI

April 2018

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

April 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

National Composite

108.09

-0.05%

+6.47%

-0.33%

-1.90%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Geographic

Regions

 

 

HVI

April 2018

 

January 2005 = 100

HVI

April 2018

vs.

March 2018

% Change

HVI

April 2018

vs.

April 2017

% Change

HPPI

April 2018

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

April 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

West

133.56

+0.53%

+9.44%

-0.08%

-1.65%

South

109.87

+0.32%

+5.86%

-0.38%

-1.83%

Northeast

99.43

-1.24%

+2.22%

-0.41%

-2.17%

Midwest

88.99

+0.93%

+5.81%

-0.47%

-2.02%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Metropolitan

Areas

 

 

HPPI

April 2018

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

March 2018

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

HPPI

April 2017

 

Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*

San Jose, CA

+2.75%

+2.71%

+0.72%

Dallas, TX

+2.40%

+2.61%

+2.55%

Boston, MA

+2.23%

+2.40%

+0.82%

Denver, CO

+2.22%

+2.26%

+2.72%

San Francisco, CA

+2.06%

+1.99%

+1.10%

Seattle, WA

+2.02%

+2.20%

+1.32%

Minneapolis, MN

+1.83%

+1.53%

+0.42%

San Diego, CA

+1.40%

+1.41%

+0.42%

Charlotte, NC

+1.22%

+1.22%

+0.53%

Kansas City, MO

+1.05%

+1.09%

+0.32%

Riverside, CA

+0.96%

+0.84%

-0.16%

Detroit, MI

+0.93%

+0.69%

-1.19%

Portland, OR

+0.81%

+1.03%

+1.44%

Las Vegas, NV

+0.79%

+0.72%

-0.38%

Los Angeles, CA

+0.76%

+0.91%

+0.99%

Sacramento, CA

+0.73%

+0.72%

+0.50%

New York, NY

+0.66%

+0.42%

-1.86%

Miami, FL

+0.65%

+0.66%

+0.44%

Washington, D.C.

+0.52%

+0.46%

-1.05%

Phoenix, AZ

+0.41%

+0.40%

-0.37%

Tampa, FL

+0.31%

+0.21%

-1.38%

Atlanta, GA

+0.07%

+0.06%

-1.11%

Houston, TX

-1.16%

-0.92%

+0.45%

Baltimore, MD

-1.17%

-1.18%

-3.01%

Philadelphia, PA

-1.37%

-1.62%

-3.37%

Cleveland, OH

-1.59%

-1.44%

-2.26%

Chicago, IL

-1.68%

-1.47%

-2.37%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.